The Open Championship Preview: Royal Birkdale, Weather and Jack’s Picks

The Open Championship is here and this is always one of my favourite weeks of the year.

You get proper links golf, awkward bounces, wind that can completely change the tournament, and a leaderboard that usually rewards players who can actually control their golf ball.

This year The Open is back at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England. It is the 154th Open Championship, with tournament rounds running from Thursday 16 July to Sunday 19 July. Royal Birkdale is hosting The Open for the 11th time, so this is not some random venue. It is one of the proper Open Championship golf courses. The Course

Royal Birkdale is a par 70 and plays around 7,223 yards, so this is not just a “who hits it the furthest” week. It still helps to have speed, of course, but Birkdale is more about control, patience and knowing where not to miss. The course has had some changes since the last Open here, including redesigned bunkers, new tee positions and changes to key holes.

For me, the key areas this week are:

• Approach play: 30%

  
  

• Driving control: 25%

  
  

• Around the green and scrambling: 20%

  
  

• Putting: 15%

  
  

• Links feel and patience: 10%

The biggest thing I am looking for is tee to green control. You do not need to overpower Royal Birkdale, but you do need to avoid the fairway bunkers, flight your irons properly and miss in the correct spots.

This is where a lot of good players get exposed. They might be hitting it great on a normal golf course, but links golf asks different questions. Can you hit the low one? Can you hold the ball against the wind? Can you accept a 30 foot putt instead of firing at a tucked pin? That is the stuff that wins Opens. The Weather

This is always the big one at The Open.

The latest official Open forecast has the week looking hot and sunny, with temperatures around 26 to 28 degrees, a low rain chance and winds in the 17 to 28 mph range. That is enough breeze to make things interesting without it looking like complete carnage at this stage.

Right now, I would not be going too hard on one side of the draw. There might be a slight edge depending on how Thursday morning and Friday afternoon play out, but it does not look like one of those obvious “this wave is cooked” Opens just yet.

If the wind jumps or rain hits one side, then the draw becomes massive. But at the moment, I would be picking players more on ball flight, links record and tee to green control rather than just their tee time.

Stats Geek

Here are a few little Open Championship nuggets.

First, the draw matters at The Open more than most tournaments, but it is not everything. Recent analysis showed that in the seven Opens with the biggest wave splits, only four of those winners were actually on the better side of the draw. So yes, the draw can help, but great golf can still beat a bad tee time.

Second, you do not need to lead after round one. In the past 20 years, only Tiger Woods in 2005, Rory McIlroy in 2014 and Jordan Spieth in 2017 have led or co led after the first round and gone on to win The Open.

Third, Royal Birkdale has a bit of a “proper golfer” feel to it. Golf Channel’s course notes suggest it may play more like an accuracy course than a pure distance course, with comparisons to places like Royal Troon, Royal Liverpool, Harbour Town and Colonial. That makes me lean towards players who control their start line, flight and misses rather than just bombers.

Jack’s Picks

Tyrrell Hatton

Hatton is the one I really like this week. He has the right type of game for an Open Championship. He flights it well, competes hard, can handle ugly golf, and he does not mind a bit of chaos. On a course like Royal Birkdale, I want someone who is not going to panic when the ball gets a bad bounce or the wind starts moving around.

Tommy Fleetwood

Fleetwood makes a lot of sense. He is from Southport, he knows this style of golf, and he has the tee to green game to suit Royal Birkdale. The local pressure is the only question, but if he starts well, the crowd could drag him right into it. He is chasing his first major and would become the first English winner of The Open since Nick Faldo in 1992.

Justin Thomas

Thomas is the higher risk, higher reward pick. His Open record is not amazing, but his best golf has the exact ingredients I like for Royal Birkdale: elite iron play, creative wedge shots, strong short game and the ability to flight the ball. If he drives it well enough, he can absolutely get into the mix..

Final Word

The Open is not a normal golf tournament. It is not always pretty, and that is what makes it so good.

Royal Birkdale should reward players who control their golf ball, think clearly and do not lose the plot when they get a bad bounce. For me, the three players to follow are Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Thomas.

My three picks also sit on the same side of the draw, which I slightly prefer at this stage. Hatton, Fleetwood and Justin Thomas all go Thursday morning and Friday afternoon. It is not a massive weather edge yet, but they should get a nice early look at Royal Birkdale before the course fully firms up, then return Friday afternoon when the forecast still looks manageable.

My main lean is to look for elite tee to green players who can flight it, scramble well and handle a bit of links golf nonsense.